来稿登载 （）　2007.10

《人类的福音—“破坏性地震是可以预测的”编后记》

Evangel To Mankind– Afterword to “Devastating Earthquakes can be Predicted”

破坏性地震是严重威胁人类安全的、恐怖的自然灾害。两年前印度尼西亚地震引发的海啸造成 38 万人死亡，31 年前的唐山地震死亡 24 万人，整个唐山市瞬间成为一片废墟， 80 多年前的海源地震死亡20 万人，以及东京大地震、旧金山大地震、墨西哥大地震，等等，都是造成数十万人伤亡的、震惊世界的天灾。

Devastating earthquakes are horrific natural disasters which seriously threaten the safety of mankind. The tsunami generated by the earthquake occurring in Indonesia two years ago caused the death of 380,000 people; The Tangshan earthquake 31 years ago killed 240,000 people, the whole city of Tangshan instantly fell into ruins; 200,000 people died during the Haiyuan earthquake over 80 years ago, the historical Tokyo earthquake, San Francisco earthquake, Mexico earthquake, etc., are all world-shaking devastating natural disasters which caused the deaths of over several dozen thousands of people.

地震灾害惹不起，是否可以躲得起，预知袭来预防之。从两千年前张衡的《地震对策》到今日日本的《地震对策方案》，均反映了人们对地震灾害的确严重关切及所能采取地防震减灾措施；但对其预测预报，仍是不得其门而入，特别是震前预报更是世界级的难题，考验着人类的智慧和良知。

Mankind can not prevent the occurrence of earthquakes disasters, but can we predict the occurrence of earthquakes enabling to adopt prevention measures to avoid and reduce losses caused by earthquakes? From the “Earthquake Countermeasures” developed by Zhang Heng until the “Earthquake Countermeasure Project” implemented today in Japan, all indicates people pay great attention and adopt disaster reduction measures against the disasters caused by earthquakes. However, it appears to many of us that mankind still has not found the right approach to accomplish earthquake prediction. Accordingly, predicting earthquake before its occurrence becomes a world-class difficult problem, challenging mankind’s wisdom and inwit.

孙威先生自 1975 年以来，潜心地震预测预报的探索和研究，顶着各种因难和压力，孜孜以求，积数十年地心血，终天研制成功能够监测到地震前兆的高灵度仪器，提出了 “ 颗粒介地震学” 理论，发现了能用来指导地震预测的 “ 孕震物理模型” ，总结出实用的、准确的分析预报方法。

Since 1975, Mr. Sun Wei, devoted his efforts in exploration and studies in earthquake prediction with great concentration, resisting all kinds of difficulties and pressure, kept up with his industrious work, and, as result of his long-standing painstaking efforts, successfully developed highly sensitive instruments which could monitor precursors of earthquake, and proposed the “granular medium seismology” theory, discovered the “earthquake gestation physical model” which could be used for guiding earthquake prediction, and summed up a practical method for accurately analysis and prediction of earthquakes.

他依据自己的研究成果，自 1999 年至2006 年先后就辽宁岫岩 5.6 级地震、内蒙古5.9 级地震、印度洋 8.7 级地城、河北文安5.1 级地震、美国加州 5.0 级地震等进行了地震前兆的重复和再现性试验，实际预报准确率达 75% 以上。

According to his research accomplishments, from 1999 until 2006, he conducted a series of tests with the Liaoning Xiuyan Ms5.6 quake, the Inner Mongolia Ms5.9 quake, the Sumatra Ms8.7 quake, the Hebei Wenan Ms5.1 quake, as well as the USA California Ms5.0 quake, to repeat and reoccur the precursors, which indicated a practical earthquake prediction success rate of over 75%.

假如获得官方支持能建立所需要的监测台网，有更多经过严格培训的专业监测人员，即在正常情况下，地震预报成功率可能会有进一步的明显提高。须知，目前 75% 的预报成功率只是在个别宽容、友好单位好辽宁省地震局、中科院物理所、北京电业中学等单位和美国加州有关地震专家的热心支持，以及少而又少的业余监测人员的鼎力相助下取得的。

If a network of monitoring station could be established with necessary governmental support, supported by many more specialized monitoring staff with strict training, then even under normal conditions, the earthquake prediction success rate could be further improved significantly. It must be understood that the prediction success rate of 75% was achieved with assistance of a few tolerate and friendly institutions like the Liaoning Provincial Seismology Bureau, the Physics Research Institute of the Academy of Science of China, the Beijing Electric Power Middle School, supported by very few advocating amateur, and with the help of concerned fervoristic seismologists in California, USA,.

2007 年3 月 23 日，孙威以特快专递致函北京市有关主管部门，指出 “ 地铁10 号线顶部存在空洞，建议及早勘察、充填和加固，否则将可能酿成很大的事故 ” 。令人非常遗憾的是，孙威先生的预报被不幸而言中了 ——3 月28 日 凌晨3 时许北京地铁 10 号线即发生塌陷，致6 人死亡。呜呼，这次塌陷及人员伤亡原来是可以预防和避免的呀！

On March 23, 2007, by express delivery, Sun Wei forward a letter to the concerned departments of the Beijing government, pointing out “vacancy cavity exists in the top of the No.10 subway construction site, suggests to apply exploration, fill-up and reinforcement as early as possible, otherwise a major accident might occur”. Most unfortunately, the accident predicted by Sun Wei truly occurred – A cave in accident occurred at the No.10 subway construction site about 03:00am on March 28, 2007, which caused deaths of six workers. Alackaday, this cave in accident, the deaths and losses could be prevented and avoided if necessary measures where timely adopted.

“ 心绪万端书两纸，预封重读意迟迟 ”。迟迟者，顾虑也，言犹未尽也。

Saying such delays were caused by misgiving and worries, does not seem sufficient.

“ 没有亘古不变的教条，长存的是永无止境的探索与创新 ” 。诚哉，宋健院士的金玉良言! 前人亦或今日的有关权威称 “ 地震不能预报” ，似乎过于悲观和武断。编者的浅见以为，宇宙是有其客观存在的自身规律，这种规律是可以被认识的，早晚而已。实际上，宇宙的许多规律已逐渐为人类所认知。地震及是宇宙中的一种自然现象，地震的发生的自身机制，也应该是可以被认识的，从而有可能被预测和预报的。

“There is no doctrine that stands forever, what lives forever are ongoing and non-ending exploration and innovation”. These golden sayings by Academician Song Jian clearly describe the truth. Scholars before or even authorities of today claim that “earthquakes can not be predicted” seems too pessimistic and arbitrary. Based on the improvidence knowledge of the editor, the universe has its own objectively existing rules, these rules can be understand, either earlier or later. In fact, many rules of the universe have already been realized by mankind. Earthquake is a natural phenomenon of the universe, the mechanism of how earthquakes occur, should also could be understood, and therefore could also be predicted and announced in advance.

“1976 年7 月28 日 那个悲痛的凌晨, 当我在地震仪前看到那一片限副的 S 波, 便泪如雨注 …… ，从此我没有再退缩一步。” 就是这样，孙威心怀 “ 为唐山的悲剧不再重演” 的凌云壮志，远离名利，倾其个人所有，克服重重困难，义无反顾地踏上了探索地震预测预报的崎岖之路。 “ 君子务本，本立而道生” 。正是基于 “ 为唐山的悲剧不再重演” 之本，孙威 31 年如一日地、独辟蹊径地探索，终于拨开了“ 地震不可预报 ” 的重重迷雾，开启了地震是可以预测预报的一线曙光。

“On the grieving early morning of July 28, 1976, when I saw the duration of S-waves over the instruments limit on the seismograph, I burst into tears ……, since then I never retreated even one step in my efforts.” This was how, with strong determination “never allow the tragedy of Tangshan replay again”, Sun Wei proceeded far way from fame and gain, devoted all what he had, overcame layer upon layer difficulty, became duty-bound never turn back on the peak exploring path of earthquake prediction. “A man of honor maintains his objectives, if the objectives are correct then the approach could be found”. With the objective of “never allow the tragedy of Tangshan replay again”, Sun Wei continued his never ending exploration with his own developed unique methods, finally pushed aside the dense smog of “earthquakes can not be predicted”, and turned on a stream of light showing that earthquakes can be predicted.

1995 年阪神大地震后，日本政府制定一个以大城市为减灾对象的《地震对策方案》，该方案主要有三个方面的内容，其中之一就是通过各种手段在东京都附近开展大规模探测活动并绘制地震数据图表。当然，惜乎日本目前尚未出现孙威这样的地震预报学者。

After the Japan Kobe earthquake in 1995, the Japanese government developed an “earthquake prevention plan” with mainly three aspects; one of them is to carry out large scale exploration survey activities around Tokyo with different means and protract earthquake data maps and charts. For sure, it is unfortunate that earthquake prediction scholars like Sun Wei have not appeared in Japan.

就我国而言，如果有关部门能给孙威一点儿实际支持，给一点关爱与温柔，使其研发的监测仪大量生产，在地震多发的城市和地区建立监测台网，培训监测专业人员，地震预报准确率必将有更大的提高。这不啻是人类的福音，更是吾国吾民之幸。须知，若 31 年前的唐山悲剧再现，覆巢之下焉有完卵？

Regarding China, if the concerned departments could provide a little practical support to Sun Wei, offer a little care and gentilesse, enable mass production of the monitoring instruments developed by Sun Wei, establish a network of monitoring stations in earthquake frequent occurring cities and regions, train specialized monitoring staff, then the earthquake accurate prediction success rate surely will be significantly improved. This not only is evangel to mankind, but also is great for our nation and people. One should know, if the Tangshan tragedy 31 years ago replays again, the same devastating losses will occur again.

不为主流学派所认同的文章在《中国工程科学》上发表意欲何为？无他，因为这是一篇值得公诸于众的，有水平、有深度、有学术价值的论文，应该予以发表；即使文中有不完善、不妥甚或谬误之处，有关学者、专家尚可就此开展争鸣和深入讨论，正如中国工程院院长、本刊主任编委徐匡迪院士言： “ 《中国工程科学》可成一争鸣的论坛亦非坏事 ” 。有道是海纳百川，有容乃大。地震可预测预报的一家之言，不会引发 “ 海啸” ，它只是百川中的一股涓涓细流，善加疏导入海则善莫大焉。

What is the intention for “China Engineering Science” to publish a paper not accepted by mainstream scholars? No other intention, because this is a paper with high academic level and depth academic value worthwhile to be open to the public which therefore should be published. Even if the paper contains some not perfect, misgiving or even mistakes, the concerned scholars and specialists could debate and carry out deep discussion about it. As Academician Xu Kuang-di, President of the Academy of Engineering of China, chief committee member of the editing committee of our journal, stated, “It should not be bad thing if China Engineering Science becomes a forum of debate”. It is said that the sea embraces and accepts hundreds of rivers; it becomes great only if it has the capacity. The views of earthquakes can be predicted will not generate a tsunami. It is only one stream within hundred of rivers, with appropriate guidance leading into the sea will be a great kindness.

凡此种种，就是本刊发表孙威先生学术论文的初衷。

These considerations form the original intention for our journal to publish Sun Wei’s academic paper.

（编者 丁朝模）

(Editor Ding Chao-mo)

网站简介　投稿指南　特别声明